{"id":11473,"date":"2026-02-02T09:15:06","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T09:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/?p=11473"},"modified":"2026-02-02T09:15:06","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T09:15:06","slug":"abd-irana-saldiri-hazirliginda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/02\/abd-irana-saldiri-hazirliginda\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD \u0130ran’a Sald\u0131r\u0131 Haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD, g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde \u0130ran’a sald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Potansiyel hedefler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tahmin edilebilir olsa da, yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 tahmin etmek zor.<\/p>\n

Peki, Tahran’la son dakika anla\u015fmas\u0131 sa\u011flanamazsa ve Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine sald\u0131r\u0131 emri verirse, muhtemel sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 neler olabilir?<\/p>\n

1. Hedefli, hassas sald\u0131r\u0131lar, minimum sivil kay\u0131p, demokrasiye ge\u00e7i\u015f <\/b><\/p>\n

ABD hava ve deniz kuvvetleri \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC) ve IRGC’nin kontrol\u00fcndeki milis g\u00fcc\u00fc Besi\u00e7 biriminin \u00fcslerini, balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma ve depolama tesislerini ve \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve hassas hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenleyebilir. <\/p>\n

Zaten zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f rejim devrilir ve sonunda \u0130ran’\u0131n d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na yeniden kat\u0131labilece\u011fi ger\u00e7ek bir demokrasiye ge\u00e7i\u015f sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu olduk\u00e7a iyimser bir senaryo.<\/p>\n

Bat\u0131’n\u0131n hem Irak’a hem de Libya’ya askeri m\u00fcdahalesi, demokrasiye sorunsuz bir ge\u00e7i\u015fi beraberinde getirmedi.<\/p>\n

Her iki durumda da ac\u0131mas\u0131z diktat\u00f6rl\u00fckler sona ermi\u015f olsa da, y\u0131llarca s\u00fcren kaos ve kan d\u00f6k\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

2024’te Bat\u0131’n\u0131n askeri m\u00fcdahalesi olmadan Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Be\u015far Esad’\u0131 devirerek kendi devrimini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren Suriye, \u015fimdiye kadar daha iyi bir performans sergiledi.<\/p>\n

2. Rejim ya\u015famaya devam eder ama politikalar\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fat\u0131r <\/b><\/p>\n

Buna genel anlamda “Venezuela modeli” olarak adland\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Bu modelde ABD’nin h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahalesi rejimi oldu\u011fu gibi b\u0131rak\u0131r, ancak politikalar\u0131 yumu\u015fat\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran \u00f6rne\u011finde bu, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu da \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc tatmin etmeyecektir.<\/p>\n

Fakat Tahran’\u0131n Ortado\u011fu’daki milislere verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi azaltmak, n\u00fckleer ve balistik f\u00fcze programlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak veya k\u0131s\u0131tlamak ve protestolar\u0131 bast\u0131rma y\u00f6ntemlerini hafifletmek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yine de, bu ihtimal d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde. <\/p>\n

\u0130slam Cumhuriyeti y\u00f6netimi 47 y\u0131ld\u0131r de\u011fi\u015fime kar\u015f\u0131 inat\u00e7\u0131 ve diren\u00e7li bir tutum sergiliyor ve \u015fimdi de de\u011fi\u015fmeyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

3. Rejim \u00e7\u00f6ker, yerine askeri y\u00f6netim gelir <\/b><\/p>\n

Bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi bunun en muhtemel sonu\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Rejim bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a sevilmiyor ve y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan her protesto dalgas\u0131 y\u00f6netimi daha da zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Fakat, stat\u00fckonun korunmas\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 olan devasa ve yayg\u0131n bir g\u00fcvenlik ayg\u0131t\u0131 varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Protestolar\u0131n rejimi devirmede \u015fimdiye kadar ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni, rejimden muhaliflerin saf\u0131na \u00f6nemli bir ge\u00e7i\u015f ya\u015fanmamas\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 zamanda iktidardakilerin g\u00fcc\u00fc ellerinde tutmak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z \u015fiddet ve vah\u015fet kullanmaya haz\u0131r olmalar\u0131.<\/p>\n

Herhangi bir ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131dan sonra ya\u015fanacak kaosta, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 kadrolar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan askeri bir y\u00f6netim alt\u0131na girmesi ya\u015fanabilecek bir senaryo. <\/p>\n

4. \u0130ran ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ve kom\u015fular\u0131na sald\u0131rarak yan\u0131t verir <\/b><\/p>\n

\u0130ran, ABD’nin herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini ve “parmaklar\u0131n tetikte oldu\u011funu” a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n ABD Donanmas\u0131 ve Hava Kuvvetlerinin g\u00fcc\u00fcyle boy \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc\u015femeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. <\/p>\n

Fakat \u00e7o\u011fu ma\u011faralarda, yer alt\u0131nda veya \u00fccra da\u011f yama\u00e7lar\u0131nda gizlenmi\u015f balistik f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan cephaneli\u011fiyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verebilir. <\/p>\n

Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nin Arap taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle Bahreyn ve Katar’da, ABD \u00fcsleri ve tesisleri bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran isterse, ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na ortak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc herhangi bir \u00fclkenin, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u00dcrd\u00fcn’\u00fcn, kritik altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da hedef alabilir.<\/p>\n

2019’da Irak’taki \u0130ran destekli bir milis grubunun d\u00fczenledi\u011fi belirtilen, Suudi Aramco’nun petrokimya tesislerine y\u00f6nelik f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, Suudilere \u0130ran f\u00fczelerine kar\u015f\u0131 ne kadar savunmas\u0131z olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n hepsi de Amerikan m\u00fcttefiki olan K\u00f6rfez’deki Arap kom\u015fular\u0131, ABD’nin sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kendilerini de tehlikeye ataca\u011f\u0131ndan kayg\u0131l\u0131 ve bu da anla\u015f\u0131labilir bir durum.<\/p>\n

5. \u0130ran K\u00f6rfez’e may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyerek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verir <\/b><\/p>\n

Bu olas\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130ran’\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten 1980-88 \u0130ran-Irak sava\u015f\u0131nda deniz yollar\u0131na may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femesinden bu yana k\u00fcresel denizcilik ve petrol arz\u0131 i\u00e7in potansiyel bir tehdit olarak uzun zamand\u0131r g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran ve Umman aras\u0131ndaki dar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20’si, petrol ile petrol t\u00fcrevlerinin %20-25’i her y\u0131l bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. <\/p>\n

\u0130ran, deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yerle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in tatbikatlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

Tahran b\u00f6yle bir \u015fey yaparsa, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak d\u00fcnya ticaretini ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n

6. \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verir ve bir ABD sava\u015f gemisini bat\u0131r\u0131r <\/b><\/p>\n

Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nde bir sava\u015f gemisinde g\u00f6rev yapan bir ABD Donanmas\u0131 kaptan\u0131 bana, \u0130ran’dan kaynaklanan tehditler aras\u0131nda en \u00e7ok endi\u015felendi\u011fi \u015feyin “toplu sald\u0131r\u0131” oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoda \u0130ran, tek veya birden fazla hedefe o kadar \u00e7ok say\u0131da patlay\u0131c\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 torpido botu g\u00f6nderir ki, ABD Donanmas\u0131’n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yak\u0131n savunma sistemleri bile bunlar\u0131n hepsini zaman\u0131nda etkisiz hale getiremez.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Donanmas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre \u00f6nce, baz\u0131 komutanlar\u0131 \u015eah d\u00f6neminde \u0130ngiltere’de e\u011fitim g\u00f6ren geleneksel \u0130ran Donanmas\u0131’n\u0131n yerini ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Donanma mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fitimlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k veya “asimetrik” sava\u015f y\u00f6ntemlerine odaklan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fl\u0131ca rakipleri ABD Donanmas\u0131’n\u0131n Be\u015finci Filosu’nun sahip oldu\u011fu teknik avantajlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 arad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Bir ABD sava\u015f gemisinin bat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve m\u00fcrettebat\u0131ndan sa\u011f kalanlar\u0131n yakalanmas\u0131 ihtimali, ABD i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir utan\u00e7 olur.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, milyar dolarl\u0131k USS Cole destroyeri 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda Aden liman\u0131nda El Kaide’nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bir intihar sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131r hasar g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f ve 17 Amerikan askeri hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Ondan \u00f6nce, 1987’de bir Irakl\u0131 sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 pilotu yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131kla ABD sava\u015f gemisi USS Stark’a iki Exocet f\u00fczesi ate\u015flemi\u015f ve 37 denizcinin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne neden olmu\u015ftu. <\/p>\n

7. Rejim \u00e7\u00f6ker, yerini kaos al\u0131r <\/b><\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7ok muhtemel bir tehlike ve Suudi Arabistan gibi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin en b\u00fcy\u00fck endi\u015felerinden biri.<\/p>\n

Suriye, Yemen ve Libya’da ya\u015fananlara benzer bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, kaos ve kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ortam\u0131 \u0130ran’da da olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n

\u00dclke \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki bir iktidar bo\u015flu\u011funda K\u00fcrtler, Belu\u00e7lar ve di\u011fer az\u0131nl\u0131klar kendi mensuplar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya odaklan\u0131rken etnik gerilimlerin silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme riski de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Ortado\u011fu’nun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de b\u00f6lgedeki \u0130ran destekli g\u00fc\u00e7lere a\u011f\u0131r darbeler indiren ve \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 nedeniyle varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit hisseden endi\u015fe duyan \u0130srail, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131layacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ancak kimse, yakla\u015f\u0131k 93 milyonluk n\u00fcfusuyla Ortado\u011fu’nun en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkesinin kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesini ve bunun sonucunda bir insani kriz ve m\u00fclteci sorununun ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemiyor.<\/p>\n

\u015eu andaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehlike ise, \u0130ran’\u0131n yak\u0131nlar\u0131na bu kadar \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131\u011fan Trump’\u0131n harekete ge\u00e7mek ve itibar yitirmek aras\u0131nda bir se\u00e7im yapmak zorunda hissetmesi. <\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylece sonucu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen ve potansiyel olarak y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7larla dolu bir sava\u015f ba\u015flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD, \u0130ran’a olas\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yor; sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 belirsiz ve karma\u015f\u0131k olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[272,271,1658,794,1872],"class_list":["post-11473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-abd","tag-iran","tag-rejim","tag-saldiri","tag-savas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11473"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11475,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11473\/revisions\/11475"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}