{"id":4598,"date":"2026-01-29T09:24:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T09:24:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/?p=4598"},"modified":"2026-01-29T09:24:06","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T09:24:06","slug":"morgan-stanley-kasimda-turkiyede-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-zayif-gorunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/29\/morgan-stanley-kasimda-turkiyede-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-zayif-gorunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley: Kas\u0131m’da T\u00fcrkiye’de faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"
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ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu’nun (T\u00dc\u0130K) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl enflasyonu verilerinin ard\u0131ndan enflasyon ve faizlere ili\u015fkin tahminlerini g\u00fcncelledi.<\/p>\n

Banka, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fckseltirken Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi ihtimalinin de zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 42,4’ten y\u00fczde 43,5’e y\u00fckseltti. Banka 2025 sonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 25,2 olarak korudu.<\/p>\n

T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re, Eyl\u00fcl’de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 49,38 artt\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 2,97 oldu. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon verilerinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7 talebin diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu ve ekonomide s\u00fcregelen yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen firmalar\u0131n fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan da TBMM’de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flanana kadar politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutma s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi. <\/p>\n

“Kas\u0131m’da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck”<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley Ekonomisti Hande K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n TCMB’nin tahminleri \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck’e g\u00f6re, TCMB’nin verilere ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k konusundaki y\u00f6nlendirmesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda herhangi bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, \u00fccret ve fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizliklerin ortadan kalkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faiz indirimlerinin yeni y\u0131lda ba\u015flamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtti. Banka \u00f6nceki tahmininde de faiz indirimlerinin 2025’te ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan tahminlerini g\u00fcncelleyen bir di\u011fer ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 JPMorgan da TCMB’nin ilk faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentisini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Daha \u00f6nce ilk indirimin Kas\u0131m’da yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren banka bu beklentisini Ocak ay\u0131na \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) faiz indirimi ihtimalinin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu belirtti. Banka ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[430,75,873,824,872],"class_list":["post-4598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-banka","tag-enflasyon","tag-eylul","tag-faiz","tag-indirimi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4598"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4600,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4598\/revisions\/4600"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}