{"id":4604,"date":"2026-01-29T09:30:04","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T09:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/?p=4604"},"modified":"2026-01-29T09:30:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T09:30:04","slug":"ubs-tcmbnin-gevsemeye-daha-gec-baslama-riski-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/29\/ubs-tcmbnin-gevsemeye-daha-gec-baslama-riski-artti\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS: TCMB’nin gev\u015femeye daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flama riski artt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye tahmini yay\u0131nlayan bankalar\u0131n aras\u0131na \u0130svi\u00e7re Bankas\u0131 UBS de kat\u0131ld\u0131. UBS ekonomisti Gyorgy Kovacs’\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, “T\u00fcrkiye’de dezenflasyonun devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz, ancak orta vadeli dezenflasyon h\u0131z\u0131 daha belirsiz” ifadeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re, Eyl\u00fcl’de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 49,38 artt\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 2,97 oldu. TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan da TBMM’de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flanana kadar politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutma s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Banka bug\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon geli\u015fmelerinin ard\u0131ndan, 2024 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE tahminini y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 45’ten y\u00fczde 45,6’ya y\u00fckseltti. Banka ayr\u0131ca 2025 sonu T\u00dcFE’nin y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 23 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Ana senaryo Kas\u0131m’da indirim<\/b><\/p>\n

Kovacs’\u0131n raporda ayr\u0131ca, “TCMB’nin gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn 250 baz puan indirimle Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye devam etsek de bug\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan TCMB’nin gev\u015femeye daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flama riski artt\u0131. Faiz indirimi Aral\u0131k 2024 veya 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na sarkabilir” ifadelerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n

“A\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verilerinin TCMB i\u00e7in bir ikilem yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz” analizinin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, “Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki TCMB a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda daha az \u015fahin bir dil kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, net D\u00f6viz rezervlerinin Eyl\u00fcl sonu itibariyle 33 milyar dolara y\u00fckselmesi ve Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda reel politika faizinin pozitife d\u00f6nmesiyle faiz indiriminin de yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz” denildi.<\/p>\n

Raporda, “Buna ek olarak, mevduatlar\u0131n dolarizasyonunun devam etti\u011fini ve kur korumal\u0131 mevduat (KKM) stokunun geriledi\u011fini not ediyoruz” ifadeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bankalar\u0131n son tahminleri<\/b><\/p>\n

ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Morgan Stanley, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’de faiz indirimi ihtimalinin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu belirterek y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan tahminlerini g\u00fcncelleyen bir di\u011fer ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 JPMorgan da TCMB’nin ilk faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentisini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Daha \u00f6nce ilk indirimin Kas\u0131m’da yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren banka bu beklentisini Ocak ay\u0131na \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130svi\u00e7re Bankas\u0131 UBS, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan TCMB’nin Kas\u0131m’da faiz indirime ba\u015flama ihtimalinin devam etti\u011fini ancak gev\u015femeye daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flama riskinin bir miktar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[430,75,873,822,874],"class_list":["post-4604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-banka","tag-enflasyon","tag-eylul","tag-indirim","tag-tcmb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4604"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4604\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4606,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4604\/revisions\/4606"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4605"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}