{"id":5555,"date":"2026-01-30T02:24:05","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T02:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/?p=5555"},"modified":"2026-01-30T02:24:05","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T02:24:05","slug":"uss-abraham-lincolnun-irana-yakinligi-gerginligi-artiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/30\/uss-abraham-lincolnun-irana-yakinligi-gerginligi-artiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USS Abraham Lincoln’un \u0130ran’a Yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Gerginli\u011fi Art\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USS Abraham Lincoln u\u00e7ak gemisinin ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n sorumluluk alan\u0131na, yani \u0130ran sular\u0131na yak\u0131n bir b\u00f6lgeye gitmesi, b\u00f6lgede daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u015fekillendi\u011fi hissini daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tahran y\u00f6netiminin, \u00fclkede son y\u0131llar\u0131n en kapsaml\u0131 ve \u015fiddetli protestolar\u0131na sert yan\u0131t verdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lan bu sevkiyat, ABD ve \u0130ran’\u0131n art\u0131k do\u011frudan bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya son y\u0131llarda hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar yak\u0131n olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n lider kadrosu, giderek daha y\u00fcksek sesle rejimin devrilmesini fazla talep eden protesto hareketi ile niyetini kasten belirsiz \u015fekilde dile getiren ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. <\/p>\n

Bu durum da sadece Tahran’da de\u011fil, zaten istikrars\u0131z olan b\u00f6lgede de endi\u015feyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 bu kez farkl\u0131 olabilir<\/b><\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n olas\u0131 ABD’nin olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na verece\u011fi yan\u0131t, Washington ile daha \u00f6nceki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, dikkatlice planlanm\u0131\u015f kal\u0131ba uymayabilir. <\/p>\n

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n Tahran y\u00f6netiminin \u00fclkedeki kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanarak bast\u0131rmas\u0131 \u00fczerinden dile getirdi\u011fi son tehditler, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in son derece gergin bir d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcndemde. <\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, ABD’nin herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 hem b\u00f6lgede hem de \u0130ran’da \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gerginli\u011fi h\u0131zla art\u0131rma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/p>\n

Son y\u0131llarda Tahran’\u0131n e\u011filimi, gecikmeli ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 misilleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n

ABD’nin 21-22 Haziran 2025 tarihlerinde \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer tesislerini hedef almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran, ertesi g\u00fcn Katar’da ABD taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131p i\u015fletilen El Udeyd Hava \u00dcss\u00fc’ne f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenledi. <\/p>\n

Ba\u015fkan Trump’a g\u00f6re, \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131dan \u00f6nce uyar\u0131da bulunmu\u015f ve bu da hava savunma sistemlerinin f\u00fczelerin \u00e7o\u011funu engellemesine sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda herhangi bir can kayb\u0131 olmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu durum yayg\u0131n \u015fekilde, \u0130ran’\u0131n bilin\u00e7li bir \u015fekilde kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterme giri\u015fiminde bulundu\u011fu ancak daha kapsaml\u0131 bir sava\u015ftan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde yorumland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Benzer bir durum Ocak 2020’de, Trump’\u0131n ilk ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde de ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n

\u0130ran, ABD’nin 3 Ocak’ta Ba\u011fdat Havaalan\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc Komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani’yi \u00f6ld\u00fcrmesinden be\u015f g\u00fcn sonra Irak’taki ABD’ye ait Ayn el-Esad Hava \u00dcss\u00fc’ne f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenleyerek misillemede bulunmu\u015ftu. <\/p>\n

Yine sald\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6ncesi uyar\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131, ABD’nin hi\u00e7bir askeri personeli hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmedi. <\/p>\n

Bu olay, Tahran’\u0131n gerilimi k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmaktan ziyade kontrol alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n

Ancak \u015fu anki durum belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran, 1979’da \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulu\u015fundan bu yana en ciddi i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klardan birini ya\u015fad\u0131. <\/p>\n

\u00dclkede Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sonunda patlak veren ve Ocak ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda da s\u00fcren protestolar, son derece \u015fiddetli bir \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131larak bast\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’daki insan haklar\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctleri ve sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131, birka\u00e7 bin ki\u015finin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00e7ok daha fazla ki\u015finin ise yaraland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya g\u00f6zalt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkede iki haftadan uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden internet kesintisi ve eri\u015fim eksikli\u011fi nedeniyle kesin rakamlar do\u011frulanam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer \u00f6l\u00fcmlerin sorumlulu\u011funu kabul etmedi. Su\u00e7u “ter\u00f6rist gruplar” olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 baz\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlere y\u00fcklediler ve \u0130srail’i de kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmakla su\u00e7lad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Bu s\u00f6ylem, \u00fclkenin en \u00fcst d\u00fczey lider kadrosu taraf\u0131ndan da tekrarland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran Y\u00fcksek Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi Sekreteri Ali Laricani, protestolar\u0131n ge\u00e7en yaz ya\u015fanan 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sava\u015f\u0131n devam\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, yetkililerin g\u00fcvenlik odakl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na dair bir fikir veriyor ve bask\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011funlu\u011funu me\u015fru g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in bir bahane olarak da kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’da sokaklardaki protestolar azalsa da sona ermi\u015f de\u011fil. <\/p>\n

\u015eikayetler \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulmad\u0131. Toplumun geni\u015f kesimleri ile iktidar aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7 bu d\u00fczeyde u\u00e7urum olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n

8 ve 9 Ocak’ta, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirlerdeki baz\u0131 mahallelerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti\u011fi ancak daha sonra ezici bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanarak kontrol\u00fc yeniden sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n

Kontrol\u00fcn k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine kaybedilmesi yetkilileri \u00e7ok tedirgin etmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Tahran i\u00e7in uzla\u015fmazl\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz m\u0131? <\/b><\/p>\n

\u0130ran’da ya\u015fananlar sonras\u0131 s\u00fckunet m\u00fczakere yoluyla de\u011fil, bask\u0131yla sa\u011fland\u0131 ve bu da durumu son derece hassas bir hale getirdi.<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda, ABD’nin muhtemel sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n niteli\u011fi kritik \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

ABD’nin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, Washington’a b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015ftan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken askeri ba\u015far\u0131 iddias\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131na olanak sa\u011flayabilir. Fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetine, i\u00e7eride yeni bir bask\u0131 dalgas\u0131na giri\u015fmesi i\u00e7in de bahane verebilir.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle bir senaryo, yeni bask\u0131lara, kitlesel tutuklamalara ve g\u00f6zalt\u0131nda bulunan protestocular i\u00e7in \u00f6l\u00fcm cezalar\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere yeni bir dizi a\u011f\u0131r cezaya yol a\u00e7ma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran devletini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flatacak veya fel\u00e7 edecek daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ise \u00fclkeyi kaosun e\u015fi\u011fine itebilir.<\/p>\n

90 milyondan fazla n\u00fcfusa sahip \u0130ran’da merkezi otoritenin ani \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, net veya h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak. <\/p>\n

Bu, b\u00f6lge genelinde uzun s\u00fcreli istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa, mezhep \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir ve t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 y\u0131llar alabilir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcm bu riskler, Tahran’\u0131n giderek uzla\u015fmaya kapal\u0131 bir s\u00f6ylem benimsemesini a\u00e7\u0131klamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’da hem Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131’n\u0131n hem de d\u00fczenli ordunun komuta kadrosu ve \u00fcst d\u00fczey siyasi yetkililer, ABD’nin herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n -\u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi ne olursa olsun- sava\u015f nedeni olarak de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n

Bu t\u00fcr a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u0130ran’\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ev sahipli\u011fi yapan K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerini tedirgin etti.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yan\u0131t\u0131, hem do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahil olup olmad\u0131klar\u0131na bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n, bu \u00fclkeleri risk alt\u0131na sokacak hem de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine yay\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak.<\/p>\n

Washington da \u00e7e\u015fitli sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n

Trump, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkilileri protestoculara kar\u015f\u0131 \u015fiddet kullanmamalar\u0131 konusunda defalarca uyard\u0131 ve olaylar\u0131n en yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde \u0130ranl\u0131lara hiteben “Yard\u0131m geliyor” dedi.<\/p>\n

Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u0130ran’da geni\u015f yank\u0131 buldu ve protestocular\u0131n beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Her iki taraf da stratejik tablonun fark\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Trump, \u0130ran’\u0131n ge\u00e7en yazki 12 g\u00fcnl\u00fck sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu biliyor. Tahran da Trump’\u0131n topyekun, ucu a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya pek hevesli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 fark\u0131ndal\u0131k bir nebze g\u00fcvence sa\u011flayabilir ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda tehlikeli yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lamalara da yol a\u00e7abilir. Her iki taraf da kendi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc abartabilir veya rakibin niyetlerini yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlayabilir.<\/p>\n

Trump i\u00e7in, ne olursa olsun, bir denge bulmak \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131 yeniden bask\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne veya kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fcklemeden, zafer olarak sunabilece\u011fi bir sonuca ihtiyac\u0131 var.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran liderleri i\u00e7in tehlikenin k\u00f6keni, zamanlama ve alg\u0131da yat\u0131yor. <\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n daha \u00f6nceki gecikmeli, sembolik misilleme modeli art\u0131k yeterli olmayabilir. <\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle de \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeniden tesis etmek ve son olaylar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcyle sars\u0131lan \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki kontrollerini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in h\u0131z\u0131n \u015fart oldu\u011funa inan\u0131rlarsa.<\/p>\n

Ancak h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yan\u0131t, yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplama riskini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131racak ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rleri, \u00e7ok az ki\u015finin g\u00f6ze alabilece\u011fi bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekecek.<\/p>\n

Her iki taraf da yo\u011fun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve manevra alan\u0131 \u00e7ok az. <\/p>\n

,Uzun s\u00fcredir u\u00e7urumun kenar\u0131nda oyun oynanmas\u0131nda en tehlikeli an yakla\u015f\u0131yor olabilir. <\/p>\n

Bu dengenin yanl\u0131\u015f kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n bedelini ise sadece h\u00fck\u00fcmetler de\u011fil, milyonlarca s\u0131radan \u0130ranl\u0131 ve b\u00f6lge halk\u0131 da \u00f6deyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USS Abraham Lincoln’un b\u00f6lgeye sevki, ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[272,510,271,840,700],"class_list":["post-5555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-abd","tag-bolge","tag-iran","tag-saldirisi","tag-ulke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5555"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5555\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5557,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5555\/revisions\/5557"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}