{"id":7077,"date":"2026-01-30T23:54:09","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T23:54:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/?p=7077"},"modified":"2026-01-30T23:54:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T23:54:09","slug":"abdnin-irana-olasi-saldirinda-masadaki-7-senaryo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/30\/abdnin-irana-olasi-saldirinda-masadaki-7-senaryo\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD’nin \u0130ran\u2019a olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131nda masadaki 7 senaryo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Orta Do\u011fu’da gerilim y\u00fckseliyor…<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran\u2019a askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenleyebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentiler artarken olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n

MASADA 7 SENARYO<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bir son dakika anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaz ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump sald\u0131r\u0131 emri verirse, b\u00f6lge ve d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in yedi farkl\u0131 senaryo masada.<\/p>\n

\u0130ngiliz yay\u0131n kurulu\u015fu BBC, ihtimalleri de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

1- SINIRLI B\u0130R SALDIRI VE REJ\u0130M DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130KL\u0130\u011e\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re ABD hava ve deniz kuvvetleri, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu ve ona ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00fcslerini, balistik f\u00fcze tesislerini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 nokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131 operasyonlarla hedef al\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f rejim devrilir ve \u00fclke zamanla demokratik bir y\u00f6netime ge\u00e7er.<\/p>\n

Ancak uzmanlara g\u00f6re bu ihtimal olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n

Irak ve Libya \u00f6rneklerinde Bat\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi rejimleri sona erdirmi\u015f olsa da, istikrarl\u0131 bir demokrasi getirmedi. Aksine uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcren kaos ve \u015fiddete yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

2- REJ\u0130M AYAKTA KALIR VE POL\u0130T\u0130KALARINI YUMU\u015eATIR<\/strong><\/p>\n

‘Venezuela modeli’ olarak tan\u0131mlanan bu senaryoda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ABD m\u00fcdahalesi rejimi devirmeden geri ad\u0131m atmaya zorlar.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki milis gruplara verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi azaltmas\u0131, n\u00fckleer ve balistik f\u00fcze programlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve protestolara y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede say\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ancak 47 y\u0131ld\u0131r de\u011fi\u015fime direnen \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti y\u00f6netiminin bu y\u00f6nde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm g\u00f6stermesi pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

3- REJ\u0130M \u00c7\u00d6KER VE ASKER\u0130 Y\u00d6NET\u0130M GEL\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6zlemciye g\u00f6re en muhtemel senaryo bu.<\/p>\n

Rejim halk nezdinde ciddi me\u015fruiyet kayb\u0131 ya\u015fasa da, \u00fclke genelinde derin ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenlik ayg\u0131t\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Protestolar\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadar sonu\u00e7 vermemesinin temel nedeni de g\u00fcvenlik sisteminin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmemesi.<\/p>\n

ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olu\u015facak kaosta, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 k\u00f6kenli bir askeri y\u00f6netim taraf\u0131ndan idare edilmesi ihtimali g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

4- \u0130RAN, ABD VE M\u00dcTTEF\u0130KLER\u0130NE M\u0130S\u0130LLEME YAPAR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tahran y\u00f6netimi, olas\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya misilleme s\u00f6z\u00fc vererek ‘parma\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tetikte’ mesaj\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran, ABD donanmas\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7te olmasa da ma\u011faralarda ve da\u011fl\u0131k alanlarda gizlenmi\u015f balistik f\u00fczeler ve \u0130HA\u2019larla K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerini hedef alabilir.<\/p>\n

Bahreyn ve Katar\u2019daki ABD tesislerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130ran’\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131ya destek verdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00dcrd\u00fcn gibi \u00fclkelerin kritik altyap\u0131lar\u0131 da hedef haline gelebilir.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

5- BASRA K\u00d6RFEZ\u0130 MAYINLANIR<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, 1980\u201388 \u0130ran-Irak Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda oldu\u011fu gibi deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131 d\u00f6\u015femesi, k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in ciddi bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131ndan biri olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel LNG ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20\u2019sine ve petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20-25\u2019ine ev sahipli\u011fi yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 ya da riskli hale gelmesi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckseltebilir.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

6- B\u0130R ABD SAVA\u015e GEM\u0130S\u0130 BATIRILIR<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en \u00e7ok \u00e7ekindi\u011fi ihtimallerden biri, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ‘s\u00fcr\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131’ takti\u011fi.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoda \u0130ran, \u00e7ok say\u0131da patlay\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckl\u00fc \u0130HA ve h\u0131zl\u0131 botu ayn\u0131 anda kullanarak savunma sistemlerini a\u015fmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n

Bir ABD sava\u015f gemisinin bat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da m\u00fcrettebat\u0131ndan sa\u011f kalanlar\u0131n esir al\u0131nmas\u0131, Washington i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir askeri ve siyasi prestij kayb\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n

Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclse de ge\u00e7mi\u015fte USS Cole ve USS Stark sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 bu riskin tamamen teorik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

7- REJ\u0130M \u00c7\u00d6KER, \u00dcLKE KAOSA S\u00dcR\u00dcKLEN\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerini en \u00e7ok endi\u015felendiren senaryo da bu.<\/p>\n

Rejimin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye, Yemen veya Libya benzeri bir i\u00e7 sava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi ve silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n patlak vermesi ihtimali bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k 93 milyon n\u00fcfusa sahip \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fanacak bir kaosun, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir insani kriz ve m\u00fclteci dalgas\u0131 yaratmas\u0131ndan korkuluyor.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlara g\u00f6re en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, ABD\u2019nin askeri y\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekmeden ‘itibar kayb\u0131’ korkusuyla harekete ge\u00e7mesi ve sonu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen bir sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a olas\u0131 askeri m\u00fcdahalesi, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lardan b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015fa ve k\u00fcresel enerji krizine uzanan yedi farkl\u0131 senaryoyu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7078,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[272,271,1658,794,1659],"class_list":["post-7077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-abd","tag-iran","tag-rejim","tag-saldiri","tag-senaryo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7077"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7077\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7087,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7077\/revisions\/7087"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}