{"id":7355,"date":"2026-01-31T03:27:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T03:27:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/?p=7355"},"modified":"2026-01-31T03:27:06","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T03:27:06","slug":"kuresel-olcekte-ticari-iflaslarin-2026-yilinda-yuzde-28-artmasi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/31\/kuresel-olcekte-ticari-iflaslarin-2026-yilinda-yuzde-28-artmasi-bekleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ticari iflaslar\u0131n 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,8 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ticari alacak sigortas\u0131 ve ticari risk y\u00f6netimi alan\u0131nda d\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de lider konumda bulunan Coface, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin iflas g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir toparlanmadan \u00e7ok temkinli ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir dengeye i\u015faret etti.\u00a0<strong>Coface\u2019in Kuzeybat\u0131 Avrupa (Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ve \u0130rlanda, Benel\u00fcks ve Nordik \u00fclkeler) Ekonomisti Jonathan Steenberg\u2019in de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re<\/strong>, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ticari iflaslar\u0131n y\u00fczde 2,8 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor ancak bu tablo ger\u00e7ek bir toparlanmadan \u00e7ok ge\u00e7ici bir duraklamaya i\u015faret ediyor.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Steenberg\u2019in de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re; Fransa ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta iflas art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, ABD\u2019de g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri gibi son politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan etkilenen sekt\u00f6rlerin etkisiyle bu oran y\u00fczde 4\u2019e ula\u015fabilir. Almanya\u2019da kamu te\u015fviklerine ra\u011fmen \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r faaliyetlerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, aktif \u015firket say\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkisiyle \u0130talya\u2019da y\u00fczde 2 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen makroekonomik ivmenin deste\u011fiyle \u0130spanya\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 3 oran\u0131nda gerileme bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>\u201c2026\u2019da iflaslar azalmayacak, sadece art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flayacak\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>2026\u2019n\u0131n bir iyile\u015fme y\u0131l\u0131ndan ziyade, ge\u00e7ici bir nefes alma d\u00f6nemi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Coface\u2019in Kuzeybat\u0131 Avrupa\u00a0<strong>Ekonomisti Jonathan Steenberg<\/strong>, iflas say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini, sadece art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, faizlerin beklenenden daha yava\u015f gev\u015femesi halinde ise bu istikrar\u0131n h\u0131zla ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131l s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 2026\u2019n\u0131n bir sakinle\u015fme d\u00f6nemi olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Jonathan Steenberg, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: \u201c\u0130flaslar artmaya devam edecek, ancak daha yava\u015f bir h\u0131zda; bunu faiz oranlar\u0131 ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki kademeli gev\u015feme destekleyecek. Ancak bu istikrar k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor, bor\u00e7 seviyeleri y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor, k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve en fazla risk alt\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6rler gerilim belirtileri g\u00f6stermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>\u201cAvrupa\u2019da istikrar finansman maliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Avrupa\u2019da 2026 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterse de ortak noktada finansman maliyetlerine y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan\u00a0<strong>Jonathan Steenberg,<\/strong>\u00a0Almanya\u2019da iflaslar\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 artmas\u0131n\u0131n, Fransa ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 2 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini, \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n ise daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makroekonomik ivme sayesinde y\u00fczde 3\u2019l\u00fck bir gerilemeden faydalanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130talya\u2019da y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak usul reformlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 istatistiksel etkilerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Jonathan Steenberg, Hollanda\u2019da beklenen y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131n pandemi \u00f6ncesi seviyelere kademeli bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. K\u0131tan\u0131n kredi maliyetine son derece duyarl\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini vurgulayan\u00a0<strong>Steenberg<\/strong>, 2026\u2019daki gidi\u015fat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirlenece\u011fini belirterek \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:\u00a0<em>\u201cBu tablo, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kredi maliyetlerine ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor. Finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim bile \u00fclkeler ve sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki dengeleri k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden \u015fekillendirebilecek bir etkiye sahip.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>\u201cKuzey Amerika ve Asya-Pasifik\u2019te tek bir tablo yok: \u0130flas e\u011filimleri ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Kuzey Amerika ve Asya-Pasifik\u2019te 2026 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczeyde bir rahatlama hissi yaratsa da b\u00f6lgesel dinamiklerin belirgin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden\u00a0<strong>Jonathan Steenberg,<\/strong>\u00a0ABD\u2019de iflaslar\u0131n y\u00fczde 4 artmas\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayan ekonomi ve y\u00fckselen g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinin \u015firketler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Kanada\u2019da ise uzun s\u00fcren b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik bir gerilemeyle daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecine girilece\u011fini belirtti. Asya-Pasifik taraf\u0131nda Japonya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyreden faiz oranlar\u0131 ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan sekt\u00f6rlerin etkisini hissetmeye devam edece\u011fini, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ise pandemi sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc normalle\u015fmenin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 0,5 ile daha yatay bir seyir izlemesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen\u00a0<strong>Steenberg,<\/strong>\u00a0bu tabloyu \u015f\u00f6yle de\u011ferlendirdi:\u00a0<em>\u201cBu dinamikler, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda iflaslar\u0131n seyrinin k\u00fcresel bir trendden \u00e7ok, yerel \u015foklar taraf\u0131ndan belirlenece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor. Parasal, sekt\u00f6rel ya da d\u00fczenleyici nitelikteki her geli\u015fme, \u00fclkelerin risk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde \u015fekillendirmeye devam edecek.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>\u201c25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcm dengeleri tersine \u00e7evirebilir\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>2026 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00f6rece istikrar\u0131n, faiz oranlar\u0131nda kesintisiz bir gev\u015femeye ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulayan Coface Kuzeybat\u0131 Avrupa Ekonomisti\u00a0<strong>Jonathan Steenberg<\/strong>, \u015firketlerin uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk nedeniyle kredi maliyetlerine son derece hassas hale geldi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Steenberg, bor\u00e7lanma faizlerinde yaln\u0131zca 25 baz puanl\u0131k olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel iflas oranlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden y\u00fczde 4\u20135 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek kritik bir e\u015fik oldu\u011funu belirterek \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:\u00a0<em>\u201cBu tablo, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda iflaslar\u0131n seyrinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00e7ok parasal uyumun h\u0131z\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Finansman maliyeti, gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ger\u00e7ek belirleyicisi olacak ve en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck faiz hareketi bile k\u00fcresel dengeleri h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek bir dinami\u011fe sahip olacak.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Kaynak: (BYZHA) Beyaz Haber Ajans\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ticari alacak sigortas\u0131 ve ticari risk y\u00f6netimi alan\u0131nda d\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de lider konumda bulunan Coface, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin iflas g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir toparlanmadan \u00e7ok temkinli ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir dengeye i\u015faret etti.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[238,265,824,1745,1746],"class_list":["post-7355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-238","tag-artis","tag-faiz","tag-iflas","tag-oran"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7355"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7357,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7355\/revisions\/7357"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}