{"id":74301,"date":"2026-04-05T06:03:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T06:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/?p=74301"},"modified":"2026-04-05T06:03:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T06:03:07","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-icin-tehlike-iran-hurmuz-bogazini-kapatti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/05\/kuresel-ekonomi-icin-tehlike-iran-hurmuz-bogazini-kapatti\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in tehlike: \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran, k\u00fcresel enerji ticaretinin en kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131ndan biri olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgede tanker hareketlili\u011finin durdu\u011fu, gemi takip sistemlerinde bo\u011fazdaki tanker ve y\u00fck gemilerinin h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131ra d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

G\u00dcNL\u00dcK 20 M\u0130LYON VAR\u0130LL\u0130K SEVK\u0130YAT DURACAK<\/strong><\/p>\n

Arap Yar\u0131madas\u0131 ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yer alan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol ticaretinin ana arterlerinden biri.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil ham petrol ve petrol t\u00fcrevi bu ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131ndan d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131yor. Bu hacim, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

PETROL\u00dcN VAR\u0130L\u0130 150 DOLARI G\u00d6REB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 veri \u015firketi Primary Vision Network Enerji ve Ekonomi Analisti Osama Rizvi, bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel piyasalar \u00fczerinde sert etkiler yaratabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Rizvi\u2019ye g\u00f6re tam kapanma senaryosunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolara kadar y\u00fckselebilir. Bu durum k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,5 oran\u0131nda bask\u0131layabilir, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 6 bin 500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir ve ABD enflasyonunu yeniden y\u00fczde 4,5 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

PETROL VE DO\u011eAL GAZDA SERT F\u0130YATLANMALAR G\u00d6R\u00dcLEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n

Enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir aksamada dahi fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesi bekleniyor. Goldman Sachs de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re, bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 110 dolar seviyesine ula\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir arz azalmas\u0131 bile fiyatlar\u0131 90 dolar band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilirken, tam kapanma halinde Brent petrol\u00fcn 130\u2013150 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Avrupa\u2019da do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ise TTF referans\u0131nda 74 euro\/MWh seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. ABD\u2019nin LNG\u2019ye g\u00f6rece daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu krizden Avrupa\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkilenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

K\u00dcRESEL B\u00dcY\u00dcME VE \u00dcLKE ENFLASYONLARI DARBE ALAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri, \u00fcretim ve lojistik giderlerini art\u0131rarak maliyet enflasyonunu tetikleyecek. Enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zlan\u0131rken, hem geli\u015fmi\u015f hem de geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde fiyat istikrar\u0131 bozulabilir.<\/p>\n

Bo\u011faz\u0131n tamamen kapanmas\u0131 halinde k\u00fcresel gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lada (GSYH) yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,8 oran\u0131nda daralma ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131 ise en \u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomileri etkileyecek.<\/p>\n

Enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde y\u00fczde 80-95 seviyelerine ula\u015fmas\u0131, g\u0131da enflasyonu ve ya\u015fam maliyeti krizini daha da derinle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n

BO\u011eAZIN KAPANMASI TEDAR\u0130K Z\u0130NC\u0130R\u0130N\u0130N BOZULMASI DEMEK<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jeopolitik gerilim yaln\u0131zca enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da do\u011frudan etkiliyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lgedeki askeri ve siyasi tansiyonun artmas\u0131, sigorta primleri ve navlun \u00fccretlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar, \u00f6rne\u011fin BAE\u2019nin Fujairah hatt\u0131 ya da Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019e uzanan boru hatlar\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kapasiteye sahip oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

HANG\u0130 \u00dcLKELER DAHA FAZLA ETK\u0130LEN\u0130R?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f, karbon kaynaklar\u0131 ithal eden \u00fclkeleri ekonomik olarak zor durumda b\u0131raksa da \u00fcretici \u00fclke ekonomileri i\u00e7in gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131’nda ciddi mali y\u00fck alt\u0131nda kalan Rusya i\u00e7in petrol gelirleri art\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7eyi rahatlatacakt\u0131r. Benzer \u015fekilde K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in de petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f uzun d\u00f6nemde avantaj haline gelebilir.<\/p>\n

Bo\u011faz kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda petrol tedariki a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hangi \u00fclkeler risk alt\u0131nda diye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ba\u015fta Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) \u00fcyeleri ve \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Rusya’ya uygulanan ambargolardan sonra AB, enerji ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerine daha fazla y\u00f6nelmi\u015ftir. Bu nedenle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 durumunda en b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar\u0131 AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler alacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fa da Rusya’dan sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 ek arzla a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatacakt\u0131r. ABD, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llarda \u00fcretimi art\u0131rarak net ihracat\u00e7\u0131 konuma y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. AB i\u00e7in H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 durumunda en \u00f6nemli kaynak ABD olacakt\u0131r. Bu ise AB \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in daha fazla ABD’ye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k demektir.<\/p>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong> Ensonhaber Haber Merkezi<\/span> <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran, k\u00fcresel enerji ticaretinin en kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131ndan biri olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgede tanker hareketlili\u011finin durdu\u011fu, gemi takip sistemlerinde bo\u011fazdaki …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":74302,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7150,590,1343,391,700],"class_list":["post-74301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-bogaz","tag-enerji","tag-fiyatlari","tag-petrol","tag-ulke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74301"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74307,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74301\/revisions\/74307"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bihavadis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}